For true believers in Brexit, Ireland will always be the thorn in the side that derailed everything—the green stain that dulled the shine of a golden age. Without Ireland’s vengeful and spiteful obstruction, all the promises of freedom and prosperity would have come true.
To see how absurd this is, you have to go back five years before the 2016 referendum—back to a sense of closure. In May 2011, Queen Elizabeth made a four-day state visit to Ireland. This shouldn’t have been unusual—heads of state from neighboring countries visit each other all the time. But no reigning British monarch had set foot in what is now the Republic of Ireland for nearly a century.
Too much history weighed on these formalities—too much condescension, too much resentment, too many raw nerves. Yet when the queen’s visit finally happened, it was a masterfully choreographed act of diplomacy. It was clear that the British state had thought deeply about how to show that Ireland and the UK now related to each other as equals.
For many of us in Ireland, this felt like an exorcism. The ghosts of a colonial past were laid to rest, and with them went the demons of Anglophobia. The everyday experiences of two neighboring islands, whose people’s lives are deeply intertwined through family, friendship, culture, and commerce, could now also become political realities.
This moment didn’t come out of nowhere. Two major things made it possible. One was the extremely close cooperation between the two states in the Northern Ireland peace process. Dublin and London understood that the Troubles could only be ended if they worked together as inseparable partners. They had to learn to speak with one voice.
The other was the European Union. Its unique nature is that it gives small nations most of the same rights as big ones. Over nearly half a century, Irish and British officials learned how to work together to advance their countries’ shared interests. They weren’t just sitting at the same tables—they were often arguing for the same things.
The shock of Brexit for most Irish people wasn’t so much the event itself. We know too much about the twisted logic of certain kinds of nationalism on our own island to feel superior to anyone else caught up in such passions. We also know that deciding to leave a larger union (which is what most of Ireland did a century ago, after all) isn’t a simple calculation of economic losses and gains—emotional satisfaction and collective pride matter too.
The shock came, instead, from the sheer recklessness of the Brexiters. It was obvious in the referendum debates: any time Northern Ireland came up (which was rare enough), they simply changed the subject. The Irish question wasn’t even a question. At best, it was an afterthought, to be sorted out after the fabulous UK-EU trade deal (“the easiest in human history,” according to Liam Fox) had been wrapped up.
David Davis’s claim that there was “no downside to Brexit at all, and considerable upsides” was, from an Irish perspective, terrifying—not because he was lying, but because he actually believed it. Such confidence was only possible if it was rooted in blissful ignorance.
Only those who knew nothing about Ireland (or about the great success of British-Irish cooperation over many decades) could believe that turning the winding, uncontrollable Irish border into one of the EU’s main external frontiers had no downside. Only those who had no sense of the human cost paid to reach a point where the people of Northern Ireland believed they would be left in peace to decide their own destiny could think it was fine to drag them out of the EU against their will.
So the Irish state had little choice but to go into damage control mode. Remarkably, the Irish government and diplomatic service prepared for Brexit far more thoroughly than their British counterparts.They acted before the referendum to persuade all other EU members that preventing a hard border from returning had to be a non-negotiable part of any exit deal. That’s why we ended up with the complicated (and tiresome) backstop crisis, and eventually the concession that Northern Ireland would effectively stay in the customs union and single market, with the border placed in the Irish Sea.
This was a terrible outcome for unionism—and in the tribal, zero-sum mindset, that meant Irish nationalism had won. It’s fair to admit that, in a limited way, Ireland did come out ahead. For the first time ever, thanks to the solidarity of all EU member states, Ireland held a stronger position than Britain in a crucial standoff.
But honestly, nobody really won anything. Damage control isn’t victory. Ireland just managed to make the best of a bad situation. Still, very few people on the island were unaware of what had been lost: the trust built over decades, the deep sense of shared purpose, and especially that feeling from 2011 that a lot of painful history had finally been acknowledged and could be moved beyond.
To be fair to Keir Starmer—a phrase not often used in Britain these days—the outgoing prime minister’s government has done a lot to rebuild trust. The main feeling about Brexit in Ireland, I think, isn’t anger but sadness. There’s no satisfaction in being proven right about the economic stagnation and political instability it caused. If Britain wants to move toward a closer relationship with the EU, Ireland will be there to help in every way possible.
But there’s a fear in Ireland that one of Brexit’s delayed consequences could be Nigel Farage in Downing Street. From our side of the Irish Sea, it feels like the aftershocks of Brexit—and its complete failure—might be getting stronger, not weaker. Having seen what a reactionary British government can do to the delicate fabric of our relationships, we can’t afford to be complacent about that possibility.
Fintan O’Toole is a columnist with the Irish Times and the author of Heroic Failure: Brexit and the Politics of Pain.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on Fintan OTooles article The fallout from Brexits failure might be getting worse a worrying outlook for Ireland
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What is the main point of Fintan OTooles article
The article argues that Brexit hasnt just been a failure for the UK but that the consequences are getting worse especially for Ireland It warns that the UKs ongoing political instability and economic problems create serious longterm risks for Ireland
2 Why does Brexit affect Ireland so much more than other countries
Because Ireland shares a land border with Northern Ireland and has deep economic and social ties with the UK Brexit disrupted trade travel and the peace process in Northern Ireland
3 What does the fallout from Brexits failure mean in simple terms
It means the negative side effects that keep happening because Brexit didnt work out as promised The UK hasnt gotten the economic benefits it expected and the messy divorce is causing ongoing problems for both the UK and Ireland
4 Is the article saying Brexit is completely over
No Its saying that the process of leaving the EU is done but the consequences are still unfolding and getting worse The UK is still trying to figure out its new relationship with the EU and that uncertainty hurts Ireland
IntermediateLevel Questions
5 What specific worrying outlook does OToole highlight for Ireland
He points to three main worries 1 The UKs economy is struggling which hurts Irish exports and investment 2 Political instability in the UK makes it an unreliable neighbor 3 The fragile peace in Northern Ireland is under increasing strain due to postBrexit trade rules
6 How does the UKs economic failure directly harm Ireland
The UK is one of Irelands biggest trading partners If the UK economy shrinks or has high inflation Irish companies that sell goods or services to the UK lose money It also makes it harder for Irish businesses to expand
7 What does the article say about the Northern Ireland Protocol
OToole argues that the Protocol was a compromise that nobody is happy with The
