On the night of June 23, 2016, a storm hit Brussels. Rain poured down and lightning flashed over the European Union headquarters. The next morning was grey and calm, but politically, things were in turmoil. Britain had voted to leave the EU.
Nigel Farage, then leader of the UK Independence Party (Ukip), declared the EU “finished” and “dead.” Far-right leaders like France’s Marine Le Pen, the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders, and Italy’s Matteo Salvini called for their own countries to hold referendums.
“Only Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece will remain once the domino effect kicks in,” said Bulgaria’s then-prime minister, Boyko Borissov.
But despite all the talk of Frexit, Nexit, and Swexit, no other country followed the UK. “Brexit changed the EU in one fundamental way,” Michael Roth, Germany’s former Europe minister, told the Guardian. “Leaving the club is no longer seen as a solution. It’s seen as a warning.”
“The Brexit experience was so damaging, so costly, so complicated, and so complex that the appetite for it across the EU is very, very, very, very, very, very small.”
Instead, countries are lining up to join, driven by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump’s threats to take over Greenland. The EU started detailed membership talks with Moldova and Ukraine this month, and the chances for Western Balkan countries to join look better than they have in the last decade.
Iceland plans a referendum on restarting EU membership talks, and support for joining is growing in Norway, though it’s still a minority view there. “The UK is one of many countries seeking a closer relationship,” said Heather Grabbe, a former adviser to the European Commission.
As a result, she added, “The UK has slipped down the list of priorities,” as the EU deals with Russia’s war, Chinese economic competition, and “whatever crazy thing Trump has done today.”
After the storm
Charles Michel, the former Belgian prime minister who led the European Council from 2019 to 2024, still feels sad about Britain’s decision, but concluded: “Brexit made decisions easier… no doubt.”
He told the Guardian that the Brexit vote made it easier for the EU to “be more engaged” in defense and security policy, which was “useful preparation” for Russia’s full-scale invasion. For example, in March 2021, the EU created the European Peace Facility to fund military equipment and operations abroad. Originally worth €5 billion, it has grown to €17 billion (£15 billion) and has been boosted by much larger funding to rearm the continent and support Ukraine.
When Russia launched its full-scale attack on Ukraine in February 2022, Michel recalled, the EU and UK were united in supporting Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia. “We were systematically, spontaneously, very close to each other, without needing complicated preparatory tools,” he said.
However, Michel also said he missed British influence on economic policy and technology regulation, like AI.
Some Eurosceptics also regret Brexit. Nicola Procaccini, co-leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists, the Eurosceptic group in the European Parliament, said: “We miss them, but at the same time we respect the decision of the British people.”
Procaccini, a member of the nationalist Brothers of Italy, said he had “no lessons to take” from the Brexit experience. Italy, he noted, was a founder of the European project and “we can’t imagine Italy out of Europe.”
His party leader, Giorgia Meloni, once called for Italy to leave the euro, which Procaccini claimed was “fake news.” Now, as Italy’s prime minister, Meloni has long since changed course to work with EU center-right leaders, like Ursula von der Leyen, on supporting Ukraine.Migration and deregulation.
A decade after Brexit, Procaccini believes conservative forces have the upper hand. He points to the EU’s tough new law on deportations, which he credits to “the Giorgia majority” – a broad coalition that includes liberals, traditional conservatives, and the far right.
Giorgia Meloni and Ursula von der Leyen are among the diverse figures on Europe’s right who have worked together on EU projects. (Photo: Roberto Monaldo/AP)
But many key EU leaders are in relatively weak positions, making it hard to claim a clear ideological shift.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has seen his support drop to historic lows a year after taking office. French President Emmanuel Macron has been stuck in domestic political gridlock since a snap election in 2024 left parliament without a majority. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been praised for his foreign policy, but his minority government is tangled in corruption scandals.
In Poland, a president who opposes Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s agenda has made it difficult to keep campaign promises. Meanwhile in Italy, even Meloni – who leads one of the EU’s most stable governments – has been weakened by losing a referendum on judicial reform.
Ready for a reset?
For a long time, the EU’s weaknesses were exposed by Hungary, as its leader Viktor Orbán acted as the chief disruptor, vetoing major decisions. Now that Orbán has been defeated at the ballot box, EU officials are considering backup plans to prevent future vetoes from new members who turn rogue.
Grabbe, now at the Bruegel economic think tank, has long argued that authoritarian insiders pose a bigger threat to the EU than Brexit. “The UK was an awkward partner, but it was a reliable partner,” she said, contrasting Britain’s implementation of EU decisions with Orbán’s broken promise to back a €90bn loan for Ukraine.
Hungary’s leader Viktor Orbán, seen here with France’s Emmanuel Macron, was a long-time thorn in the EU’s side. (Photo: Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP/Getty Images)
Now, after a turbulent period, EU-UK relations are fairly calm. The two sides will hold a “reset” summit on 22 July, aiming to strike a veterinary deal to ease checks on food and drink, link emissions trading schemes, and create a youth mobility programme.
Roth, who calls himself a “Brexit hawk,” said EU-UK relations are “quite OK – actually better than many expected,” because the EU “no longer has to deal with British exceptionalism” inside its institutions.
Michel said he expects the EU would respond with “a positive spirit” if the UK ever wanted to rejoin – “if and when there is readiness for a serious domestic debate.”
He said it was up to the UK to decide whether “global Britain” had made the country more influential, though he personally believes the UK is “weaker” than when it was an EU member.
For now, no one sees the UK rejoining as a real possibility. One senior EU diplomat told the Guardian: “On many issues, when the Brits were part of the EU, we were very like-minded – on the internal market, on free trade, on the transatlantic relationship – and we miss the UK there.”
“But it’s a fact of life, so there’s no nostalgia.”
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the impact of the Brexit vote on the EU ten years on
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What exactly was the Brexit vote
It was a referendum held in the UK in June 2016 where people voted on whether to leave the European Union The result was 52 in favor of leaving
2 Has the EU fallen apart since the UK left
No The EU is still together In fact many experts argue that the EU has become more unified and determined to work together especially on issues like defense and economic recovery
3 Did the UK leaving make the EU weaker
It made the EU smaller and lost its secondlargest economy but it didnt make it weaker The EU has actually shown it can survive a major member leaving and has since focused on proving its own strength and independence
4 Has the EUs economy been hurt by Brexit
Initially there was some economic uncertainty but the EUs economy has largely recovered and grown The UKs departure caused more economic disruption for the UK itself than for the EU as a whole
5 Did other EU countries try to leave after Brexit
No The domino effect that some predicted didnt happen In fact the Brexit process was so difficult and messy that it discouraged other member states from considering leaving
IntermediateLevel Questions
6 How did Brexit change the EUs budget
The UK was a major net contributor After Brexit the EU had a hole in its budget Other member states had to pay more and the EU cut some spending but it also introduced new sources of revenue like a tax on plastic waste
7 Did Brexit make the EU more protectionist or more open
It made the EU more protective of its own market Without the UK the EUs trade policy shifted slightly becoming a bit more cautious about free trade deals and more focused on protecting its own industries and standards
8 How did Brexit affect the EUs relationship with the US
The UK was often seen as a bridge between the US and the EU Without the UK the EU has had to build its own direct relationship with the US which has been more transactional and sometimes more confrontational especially on trade and defense
