Malcolm Mistry knew Monday morning was going to get “very warm, very quickly,” but a slow start out of bed meant he and his son were late for an early game of cricket. By the time they reached the sun-drenched nets at their local club in south-west London, it was already 10am. The 48-year-old scientist, who played cricket as a teenager, was embarrassed to find his body struggling after just half an hour of bowling.
If he had kept going for another hour, Mistry thinks he would probably have gotten heatstroke. And if he and his son had stayed until noon, they would have been pushing themselves in direct sunlight while a nearby weather station recorded the UK’s hottest May temperature since records began.
“I could feel I was panting more heavily,” said Mistry, a leading climate and health researcher at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. “That’s when I told myself: ‘I need to stop right now, immediately, before something happens.'”
The dark side of a beautifully hot European summer, according to excess death data compiled by experts like Mistry, is a death toll so large it’s almost impossible to grasp—and one that society rarely treats as a crisis. In 2024, summer heat in the EU killed about three times more people than car crashes, 16 times more than murderers, and more than 10,000 times more than terrorists.
This year, summer heat is arriving before spring has even ended. It could be a sign of worse heat to come, as parts of Europe brace for another brutal season of extreme weather.
Temperatures over the weekend hit dizzying highs in the UK, smashing the country’s historical record for May by a full 2°C. The Monday peak of 34.8°C at London’s Kew Gardens was followed by a “tropical night” at Kenley airfield, where temperatures never dropped below 21.3°C. That record was broken on Tuesday with a high of 35.1°C in west London. The Met Office said these temperatures would be “exceptional in the UK even in mid-summer, let alone in May.”
In France, where Monday highs topped 37.1°C in the south-west, the national heat warning system was activated for the first time in May since it was introduced in 2004. Seven deaths have been linked to the heat. Météo-France said that while abnormally hot periods have occurred in May before, “nothing compares to this one.” Spain may see temperatures as high as 40°C this week.
“Early-season heatwaves are especially dangerous because our bodies haven’t had time to adjust,” said Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, an environmental epidemiologist at Imperial College London. He estimates that between Saturday and Monday, there will have been an extra 250 heat-related deaths in England and Wales.
“This exceptional spring heatwave is far more than an uncomfortable disruption to our sleep, work, or study,” he said. “For vulnerable people who don’t have access to cooling—especially the elderly, the very young, and those with underlying health conditions—these temperatures are simply dangerous and can be deadly.”
The immediate cause of the record temperatures is an area of high pressure that traps heat. This comes on top of a global rise in average temperatures, which has made extreme weather more likely and pushed record highs into a new, more common reality.
Peter Thorne, a climate scientist at Maynooth University in Ireland, said: “We know beyond a shadow of a doubt” that the climate crisis has made heatwaves like this one stronger and more likely. “But still, many of the records being set, especially in the UK and France, are mind-bogglingly crazy.”
“This latest heatwave in Europe is a brutal reminder of the spiraling impacts of the climate crisis, both human and economic,” said Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change. “The main cause is the world’s addiction to burning coal, oil, and gas, and destroying forests. Many other parParts of the world are also being hit hard, including India and other regions in Asia. The science is clear: human-caused climate change is making these heatwaves more frequent and more extreme.
Europe is warming faster than any other continent. Farmers across the continent have started raising the alarm about weather forecasts in recent weeks. In the Netherlands, a regional farming group recently warned about stress from long periods of heat and drought. Last month, a young farmers’ association in Aragón, Spain, warned that extreme heat and lack of rain could lead to a “catastrophe” for cereal crops.
Scientists have warned that El Niño—a warming weather pattern expected to return in a particularly strong form this year—could push temperatures even higher in 2026. Current forecasts suggest it will reach moderate strength in the summer and peak toward the end of the year. However, official scientific bodies have cautioned that predictions made before the end of spring are still highly uncertain.
“What matters much more than the hype around an upcoming El Niño is that we have permanently shifted the climate,” said Thorne. He compared it to walking into a casino and rolling a seven on a six-sided die.
“I expect many notable extremes in Europe this summer because that is our new reality—but exactly what, where, when, and with what impacts is unpredictable,” he added. “But if you don’t lose this time, there’s always next year. And coming back to the casino analogy, in the end, the house always wins.”
Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, said: “This latest heatwave in Europe is a brutal reminder of the spiraling impacts of the climate crisis, both human and economic. The main cause is the world’s addiction to burning coal, oil, and gas, and destroying forests. Many other parts of the world are also being hit hard, such as India and other parts of Asia. The science is clear: human-induced climate change is making these heatwaves more frequent and more extreme.”
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the alarming spring heatwaves in Europe written in a natural tone with clear simple answers
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What exactly is happening with the weather in Europe right now
Europe is experiencing extremely hot temperatures much earlier than normal during spring This is called a spring heatwave and its breaking records causing wildfires and leading to deaths
2 Why are experts calling it mindbogglingly crazy
Because the heat is so intense and so early in the year Its like having peak summer temperatures in April or May which is very rare and shocking even for scientists who study climate change
3 Is this just a normal hot spell or is it different
Its different Normal hot spells happen in summer These spring heatwaves are happening when the ground is still dry from winter and plants havent fully grown yet making the heat more dangerous and impactful
4 How dangerous are these spring heatwaves compared to summer ones
They can be more dangerous Peoples bodies arent used to the heat yet and buildings arent designed to cool down This means heatstroke and other health problems can happen faster and affect more people
5 Does this mean summer will be even hotter
Not necessarily but its a bad sign A very hot spring often sets the stage for a hotter and drier summer increasing the risk of droughts and wildfires later on
Advanced Deeper Questions
6 How do scientists know this is linked to climate change and not just natural weather
Scientists use a process called attribution science They run computer models to see how likely a heatwave would be in a world without climate change and then compare it to our current world The results show that these spring heatwaves are now many times more likely and much more intense because of climate change
7 Why are spring heatwaves particularly bad for agriculture
They trick plants into thinking summer has started Fruit trees bloom too early then a late frost can kill the blossoms Also the heat dries out the soil before crops have deep roots leading to smaller harvests and higher food prices
8 What does deadly mean in this context Are people dying from the heat itself
Yes Most deaths are from heatstroke and heart attacks because the body struggles to
