Abu ne da ake iya tsammani. Manchester United ta yi asarar maki a karawar da Tottenham, kuma nan da nan masu suka suka fara tambayar ƙoƙarinsu da sadaukarwarsu, suna amfani da ƙididdigar jiki na ƙungiyar don tallafa wa gardamarsu. Da yake magana a Sky Sports, Jamie Redknapp ya ce: "Akwai wani tsari da ba na so idan ina kallon ƙungiyoyi, kuma shi ne lokacin da – kuma ƙididdiga ba ta ƙarya – sauran ƙungiyar ta fi ku gudu. A Premier League a yanzu, ina jin akwai wasu abubuwa guda biyu da ba a tattauna su: dole ne ku fi sauran ƙungiyar gudu idan kuna son cin nasara, ko aƙalla ku kusanci haka ta yadda ba zai haifar da wani bambanci mai yawa ba. Tottenham ta gudu kilomita biyar fiye da Manchester United."
Ma'aunin jiki kamar nisan gudu da adadin guduwar gaggawa suna ƙara samun sauƙin isa kuma mai sauƙin fahimta, don haka an yi amfani da su sosai. Ya zama wani jigo na gama gari cewa idan babbar ƙungiya ta kasa cimma abin da ake tsammani, masu sharhi da masu magana suna juya zuwa ma'aunin gudunsu don neman wata hanya guda ta bayani. Liverpool da Chelsea sun fuskanci irin wannan suka a kakar da ta gabata. Amma shin adalci ne? Nawa ne dangantaka tsakanin ƙungiyar da ta yi gudu mai yawa da kuma samun nasara? Ko da yake lambobin na iya zama kamar ba su da rikitarwa da farko, amsar wannan tambaya ita ce, wanda wataƙila ya nuna cewa irin waɗannan ma'auni suna da zurfi sosai a wasan ƙungiya ta yadda wataƙila ba shi ne mafi kyawun aiki ba a ba da muhimmanci mai yawa ga manyan lambobin.
Hanya ta farko da za mu iya tantance wannan ita ce ta kwatanta teburin Premier League da matsayi na nisan gudu da nisan gudu mai ƙarfi. Ee, wannan abu ne mai sauƙi kuma na asali, amma wuri ne da za a fara. Teburin Premier League na kakar da ta gabata da ƙyar ya yi daidai da matsayi na nisan da aka yi ko nisan gudu mai ƙarfi a kowane wasa. Tabbas, Arsenal da Manchester City sun yi girma wajen jimillar nisa, amma ƙungiyoyin da suka zo na uku zuwa na takwas suna da matsakaici – a mafi kyau – a wannan fannin. Duba hoto a cikakken allo. Ƙungiyoyin da suka ƙare a cikin manyan 10 sun yi matsakaicin kilomita 4,363 a kakar wasa; ƙungiyoyin da ke cikin ƙananan 10 sun yi matsakaicin kilomita 4,332. A cikin babban tsari, bambancin kilomita 31 tsakanin waɗannan matsakaicin kaɗan ne. Bugu da ƙari, akwai ɗan bambanci tsakanin matsakaicin nisan gudu mai ƙarfi na manyan ƙungiyoyi 10 (kilomita 338.7) da waɗanda ke cikin ƙananan 10 (kilomita 328.4), amma muna magana ne game da ƙaruwa na 3%. Hakazalika, idan muka duba bayanai daga wannan kakar, yana da wahala a ga wata alaƙa mai yawa. Duba hoto a cikakken allo.
Duba shi dangane da teburin yana watsi da cewa nasara dangi ce, duk da haka. Tabbas, Burnley ba za ta ƙare a matsayi na bakwai a teburin ba kawai saboda ta zo na bakwai a matsayin nisa. Maimakon haka, za mu iya amfani da hasashen Opta supercomputer na kafin kakar wasa don ba mu ra'ayi game da yadda kamfen mai nasara zai iya kasancewa ga dukkan kulake da kuma ko akwai wani yanayin ƙungiyoyin da suka wuce gona da iri suna yin gudu mai yawa. Ƙungiyoyi goma a Premier League a kakar da ta gabata sun ƙare aƙalla matsayi ɗaya sama da mafi yiwuwar matsayinsu na ƙarshe bisa ga Opta supercomputer a kafin kakar wasa, kuma sun yi matsakaicin kilomita 4,369 a kakar wasa; kulake tara da suka ƙare aƙalla matsayi ɗaya ƙasa da mafi yiwuwar matsayinsu na ƙarshe sun yi matsakaicin kilomita 4,308. Don haka kuma, akwai bambanci, kawai yana da ƙanƙanta sosai a 1.4%. Duk da haka, Sunderland (+13 matsayi) da Manchester United (+9 matsayi) ba su kasance cikin manyan 10 na nisan da aka yi ba amma sun zarce tsammanin supercomputer fiye da kowace ƙungiya; Crystal Palace (-8 matsayi) da Newcastle (-6 matsayi) sun kasance cikin manyan 10 na nisan da aka yi amma suna cikin ƙungiyoyin da suka fi ba da kunya dangane da tsammanin kafin kakar wasa. Duba hoto a cikakken allo.
Za mu iya kuma duba maki da ake tsammani, wani samfuri da ke kwaikwayon kwallayen da kowane ɓangare ya ci a kowane wasa bisa ga ƙimar xG na duk harbi sannan kuma ya kwaikwayi kowane wasa sau 10,000 don tantance adadin wasannin da suka ƙare da nasara, kunnen doki ko shan kaye. Ba shi da kamala saboda yana iyakance da tarkon xG na dabi'a, amma yana ba da ma'auni mai kyau na aiki a cikin kakar wasa. Ƙungiyoyin da suka kasance a rabin ƙasa na nisan da aka yi a kakar da ta gabata sun zarce maki da ake tsammani (xPts) da 0.38 a matsakaici, yayin da ƙungiyoyin da ke rabin sama suka sami maki 1.88 ƙasa da xPts ɗinsu. A taƙaice, da alama akwai ƙaramin alaƙa tsakanin nasara na dogon lokaci (aƙalla kamar yadda muka yi ƙoƙarin auna) da nisan gudu.
Amma wannan ba yana nufin ba mu sami wata alaƙa kwata-kwata ba. Lokacin da muke nazarin kewayon ma'aunin jiki a kakar 2025-26, wanda ya fi danganta da matsayin ƙarshe shi ne nisan da aka yi da ƙwallo.
Chelsea ita ce ƙungiyar Premier League mafi nishadi amma shin hakan zai iya dorewa? Karanta ƙari
Ba cikakkiyar dangantaka ba ce, amma akwai alamar alaƙa tsakanin yin ƙarin nisa da ƙwallo da ƙarewa a matsayi mafi girma a teburin. Wannan ba lallai ba ne yana nufin ƙungiya ta ƙare da girma saboda ta yi gudu mai yawa da ƙwallo; wataƙila yana nuna cewa ƙungiyar tana da ƙarin ƙwallo saboda tana da ƙwararrun 'yan wasa. Duk da haka, ya cancanci lura.
Amma wataƙila mafi ƙarfin alaƙa tsakanin ma'aunin jiki da nasara yana bayyana a matakin wasa maimakon a cikin cikakkiyar kakar wasa. Tun daga farkon kakar da ta gabata, an sami lokuta 86 a Premier League inda ƙungiya ta yi aƙalla kilomita 5 ƙasa da abokan hamayyarta a wasa. A cikin waɗannan wasanni 86, ƙungiyar da ta yi gudu aƙalla kilomita 5 ƙasa ta yi nasara sau 10, kuma bakwai daga cikinsu nasara ce da ake tsammani bisa ga Opta supercomputer. Wannan adadin nasara ne na 11.6%.
Yanzu, akwai wasu faɗakarwa bayyanannu. Mafi mahimmanci, 20 daga cikin waɗannan wasannin sun haɗa da aƙalla ƙungiya ɗaya da aka kori ɗan wasa, wanda hakan zai iya yin babban tasiri a kan fitowar jiki na dukkan ƙungiyoyin biyu.
Idan muka cire waɗannan wasanni 20, sai mu sami nasara takwas ga ƙungiyar da ta yi aƙalla kilomita 5 ƙasa da abokan hamayyarta daga cikin wasanni 66; wannan yana nufin adadin nasara ya tashi daga 11.6% zuwa babban … 12.1%.
Duba hoto a cikakken allo
Idan muka daidaita ma'aunin don duba lokutan da ƙungiya ɗaya ta yi tsakanin kilomita 2.5 da 4.99 ƙasa da abokan hamayyarta (kuma ba tare da wasannin da aka yi jan kati ba), adadin nasara ya inganta zuwa 25.8%, ko da yake hakan ba shi da girma musamman. Adadin shan kaye shi ne 46%.
Wannan yana nuna wata dangantaka tsakanin mafi tsananin misalan wuce gudu da abokan hamayya da cin nasara. Amma bai kamata mu yi gaggawar yanke hukunci ba; ba za mu iya tabbatar da cewa ƙarin gudun ya fi wasu abubuwa da yawa muhimmanci ba.
Ma'aunin jiki kuma galibi suna da alaƙa ta kusa da salon wasa, don haka fitowar ƙungiya ɗaya a wasa na iya shafar ta abokin hamayyarta kai tsaye. Mutane da yawa suna son dogaro da waɗannan lambobin wataƙila saboda, a zahiri, suna da sauƙin fahimta kuma suna da sauƙin – daidai ko ba daidai ba – danganta su da ƙoƙari, musamman idan kana magana game da ƙungiyar da ta sha kaye.
Amma gaskiyar cewa babu wata ƙaƙƙarfar alaƙa tsakanin nisan gudu a cikin cikakkiyar kakar wasa da nasara tana nuna cewa amsar a dogon lokaci ba ita ce ka sa ƙungiyarka ta gudu har ta gaji ba, sai dai sanin lokacin da za a ƙara ƙarfi don mafi girman tasiri.
Duba hoto a cikakken allo
Jürgen Klopp wataƙila ya taƙaita shi mafi kyau a farkon mulkinsa na Liverpool. "Ba dole ba ne mu yi gudu kilomita 115 a kowane wasa don samun nasara. Ba dole ba ne ka yi gudu kamar mahaukaci idan kana da ƙwallo. Farkon ne kawai. Dole ne mu san yadda za a juya ƙwanƙwasa a lokacin da ya dace; mafi kyawun tunani, mafi kyawun lokaci. Amma idan muna wasa da ƙungiya mafi kyau kuma ba ka shirye ka fi su gudu ba, to kai mahaukaci ne."
Pep Guardiola ya ƙara da cewa a kakar wasansa ta ƙarshe a Manchester City. "Abu ne game da lokacin da za ka gudu. Gudu kawai don gudu? Zan iya zuwa filin wasa in ce wa mutanen marathon su yi mana wasa. Ba game da hakan ba ne, game da lokacin da za ka yi shi ne. A kakar da ta gabata lokacin da wasu 'yan wasa suka yi gudu ba shi da amfani. Abu mafi muhimmanci shi ne haɗuwar abubuwan biyu."
Niyya da lokaci. Lokacin da abubuwa suka yi tsanani, niyya na iya wuce komai a idanun talakawan magoya baya. A ganin su a matsayin marasa ƙoƙari, ko hakan ya nuna gaskiya ko a'a, babban laifi ne. A cikin ƙungiyar ƙwallon ƙafa da ke fama, "kawai ka ƙara gudu" ba safai ba ne amsar. Wannan labari ne daga Opta Analyst.
Tambayoyin da ake yawan yi
Tambayoyin da ake yawan yi Shin da gaske ƙungiyoyin Premier League suna buƙatar ƙarin gudu don cin wasanni
1 Shin da gaske ƙungiyoyin Premier League suna buƙatar ƙarin gudu don cin wasanni
Ba lallai ba ne Yin gudu mai yawa ba shi da kyau kai tsaye Abin da ke da muhimmanci shi ne yadda da lokacin da kuke gudu Ƙungiyoyin da suke gudu da hikima suna dannawa a lokutan da suka dace kuma suna rufe sarari yadda ya kamata galibi suna doke ƙungiyoyin da kawai suke tara nisa
2 Nawa ne ɗan wasan Premier League ke gudu a wasa
Yawanci kusan kilomita 1013 a kowane wasa Masu tsaron gida suna gudu ƙasa da haka sau da yawa kilomita 45
3 Wace ƙungiya ce ta fi gudu a Premier League
Yana canzawa kakar wasa zuwa kakar wasa amma ƙungiyoyin da suke dannawa da ƙarfi sukan fi kan gaba a jerin nisa Abin sha'awa shi ne ba koyaushe suke ƙarewa kusa da saman teburin ba
4 Shin nisan gudu ya ƙaru a Premier League a kan lokaci
Ee amma ba kamar yadda mutane suke tsammani ba Jimillar nisa ya ɗan tashi yayin da gudu mai ƙarfi guduwar gaggawa da saurin gudu ya ƙaru sosai
5 Menene bambanci tsakanin nisan da aka yi da gudu mai ƙarfi
Nisan da aka yi shi ne jimillar ƙasar da aka rufe a wasa Gudu mai ƙarfi yana nufin guduwar gaggawa ko gudu da sauri Na biyun ya fi muhimmanci sosai wajen cin wasanni
6 Shin ƙungiyoyin da suke ƙarin gudu suna cin ƙarin nasara
A'a Nazarce-nazarce sun nuna kusan babu alaƙa tsakanin jimillar nisan da aka yi da matsayin tebur Wasu ƙungiyoyin da ke fuskantar faɗuwa suna gudu mafi yawa saboda suna bin ƙwallo
7 Me ya sa ƙungiyoyin da suka sha kaye wani lokaci suke ƙarin gudu
Saboda suna binsa Idan ba ka da ƙwallo dole ne ka gudu don dawo da ita Ƙungiyoyin da suka mamaye ƙwallo galibi suna ƙasa da gudu saboda suna sarrafa wasan
8 To wane irin gudu ne a zahiri ke taimaka wa ƙungiyoyi su yi nasara
Guduwar gaggawa dannawa mai ƙarfi da motsi mai hikima ba tare da ƙwallo ba Guduwar gaggawa a lokacin da ya dace don dannawa mai tsaron gida na iya fi kilomita da yawa na tafiya a hankali muhimmanci
9 Menene dannawa kuma me ya sa yake buƙatar gudu mai yawa haka
Dannawa yana nufin rufe abokan hamayya da sauri don dawo da ƙwallo Yana buƙatar gajerun gudu masu fashewa galibi da yawa maimakon dogayen gudu a hankali
10 Shin ƙarin gudu alama ce ta ƙungiya mai aiki tuƙuru
Ba koyaushe ba Yana iya zama
