A ranar 23 ga watan Yuni, 2016, da dare, wata guguwa ta afkawa Brussels. Ruwan sama ya zubo da walƙiya ta haskaka kan hedkwatar Tarayyar Turai. Washegari da safe, sararin sama ya yi sanyi da kwanciyar hankali, amma a siyasance, al’amura sun kasance cikin tashin hankali. Biritaniya ta kada kuri’ar ficewa daga EU.
Nigel Farage, wanda a lokacin shi ne shugaban Jam’iyyar ‘Yancin Kai ta Biritaniya (Ukip), ya bayyana EU a matsayin “ta ƙare” kuma “ta mutu.” Shugabannin masu tsattsauran ra’ayi na dama kamar Marine Le Pen ta Faransa, Geert Wilders na Netherlands, da Matteo Salvini na Italiya, sun yi kira ga ƙasashensu su gudanar da irin wannan kuri’ar raba gardama.
“Sai Bulgeriya, Romaniya, da Girka za su rage idan tasirin domino ya fara aiki,” in ji firaministan Bulgeriya na lokacin, Boyko Borissov.
Amma duk da maganganun Frexit, Nexit, da Swexit, babu wata ƙasa da ta bi tafarkin Birtaniya. “Brexit ya canza EU ta hanya ɗaya mai muhimmanci,” in ji Michael Roth, tsohon ministan Turai na Jamus, yana gaya wa Guardian. “Barin kulob din ba a ɗauke shi a matsayin mafita ba. Ana ɗaukarsa a matsayin gargaɗi.”
“Kwarewar Brexit ta kasance mai cutarwa, mai tsada, mai rikitarwa, kuma mai sarkakiya, har sha’awar yin hakan a cikin EU ta yi ƙanƙanta sosai.”
A maimakon haka, ƙasashe suna yin layi don shiga, saboda mamayewar Rasha ta ƙasa baki ɗaya a Ukraine da kuma barazanar Donald Trump na karɓar Greenland. EU ta fara tattaunawar zama memba dalla-dalla da Moldova da Ukraine a wannan watan, kuma damar shiga ga ƙasashen yammacin Balkan ta fi kyau fiye da shekaru goma da suka gabata.
Iceland tana shirin gudanar da kuri’ar raba gardama kan sake fara tattaunawar zama memba a EU, kuma goyon bayan shiga yana ƙaruwa a Norway, ko da yake har yanzu ra’ayi ne na tsiraru a can. “Birtaniya na ɗaya daga cikin ƙasashe da yawa da ke neman dangantaka ta kusa,” in ji Heather Grabbe, tsohuwar mai ba da shawara ga Hukumar Tarayyar Turai.
Sakamakon haka, ta ƙara da cewa, “Birtaniya ta faɗi a jerin abubuwan fifiko,” yayin da EU ke fuskantar yaƙin Rasha, gasar tattalin arzikin Sin, da “duk wani abin hauka da Trump ya yi a yau.”
Bayan guguwar
Charles Michel, tsohon firaministan Beljiyam wanda ya jagoranci Majalisar Turai daga 2019 zuwa 2024, har yanzu yana baƙin ciki game da shawarar Birtaniya, amma ya kammala: “Brexit ya sauƙaƙa yanke shawara... babu shakka.”
Ya gaya wa Guardian cewa kuri’ar Brexit ta sauƙaƙa wa EU “shiga cikin harkokin tsaro da siyasa sosai,” wanda ya kasance “shiri mai amfani” ga mamayewar Rasha ta ƙasa baki ɗaya. Misali, a watan Maris 2021, EU ta ƙirƙiri Cibiyar Zaman Lafiya ta Turai don tallafawa kayan yaƙi da ayyuka a ƙasashen waje. Da farko tana da darajar biliyan 5 na Yuro, yanzu ta kai biliyan 17 (fam biliyan 15) kuma an ƙarfafa ta da tallafi mafi girma don sake ɗaukar makamai a nahiyar da tallafawa Ukraine.
Lokacin da Rasha ta kaddamar da harin ta na ƙasa baki ɗaya a Ukraine a watan Fabrairu 2022, Michel ya tuna, EU da Birtaniya sun haɗa kai wajen tallafawa Ukraine da sanya takunkumi kan Rasha. “Mun kasance cikin kusanci sosai, ba tare da buƙatar kayan shiri masu rikitarwa ba,” in ji shi.
Duk da haka, Michel ya kuma ce ya yi kewar tasirin Birtaniya kan manufofin tattalin arziki da tsarin fasaha, kamar AI.
Wasu masu adawa da EU suma sun yi nadamar Brexit. Nicola Procaccini, mataimakin shugaban ‘Yan Turai masu ra’ayin mazan jiya da masu kawo sauyi, ƙungiyar masu adawa da EU a Majalisar Turai, ya ce: “Muna kewar su, amma a lokaci guda muna mutunta shawarar mutanen Birtaniya.”
Procaccini, memba na jam’iyyar ‘Yan Uwan Italiya masu kishin ƙasa, ya ce ba shi da “wani darasi da zai koya” daga kwarewar Brexit. Italiya, in ji shi, ta kasance wacce ta kafa aikin Turai kuma “ba za mu iya tunanin Italiya a waje da Turai ba.”
Shugaban jam’iyyarsa, Giorgia Meloni, ta taɓa yin kira ga Italiya ta bar kudin Euro, wanda Procaccini ya ce “labari ne na karya.” Yanzu, a matsayinta na firaministan Italiya, Meloni ta daɗe da canza hanya don yin aiki tare da shugabannin EU masu ra’ayin mazan jiya, kamar Ursula von der Leyen, kan tallafawa Ukraine.
Hijira da sassauta dokoki.
Shekaru goma bayan Brexit, Procaccini ya yi imanin cewa sojojin masu ra’ayin mazan jiya sun fi karfi. Ya yi nuni ga sabuwar doka mai tsauri ta EU kan korar mutane, wanda ya danganta ga “rinjayen Giorgia” – babban haɗin gwiwa wanda ya haɗa da masu sassaucin ra’ayi, masu ra’ayin mazan jiya na gargajiya, da masu tsattsauran ra’ayi na dama.
Giorgia Meloni da Ursula von der Leyen na daga cikin manyan mutane daban-daban a bangaren dama na Turai waɗanda suka yi aiki tare kan ayyukan EU. (Hoto: Roberto Monaldo/AP)
Amma yawancin manyan shugabannin EU suna cikin matsayi marasa ƙarfi, yana da wuya a ce akwai canjin ra’ayi bayyananne.
Shugaban Jamus Friedrich Merz ya ga goyon bayansa ya faɗi zuwa matakin da ba a taɓa gani ba shekara guda bayan ya hau mulki. Shugaban Faransa Emmanuel Macron ya makale a cikin rikicin siyasa na cikin gida tun bayan zaɓen gaggawa na 2024 wanda ya bar majalisa ba ta da rinjaye. Firaministan Spain Pedro Sánchez an yaba masa kan manufofin harkokin waje, amma gwamnatinsa ta tsiraru tana cikin badakalar cin hanci da rashawa.
A Poland, shugaban ƙasa wanda ke adawa da manufofin Firaminista Donald Tusk ya sa ya yi wuya a cika alkawuran yaƙin neman zaɓe. A halin yanzu a Italiya, ko da Meloni – wacce ke jagorantar ɗaya daga cikin gwamnatocin EU mafi kwanciyar hankali – ta raunana saboda rashin nasara a kuri’ar raba gardama kan sake fasalin shari’a.
Shirye don sake farawa?
Na dogon lokaci, raunin EU ya bayyana ta hannun Hungary, yayin da shugabanta Viktor Orbán ya zama babban mai kawo cikas, yana yin watsi da manyan yanke shawara. Yanzu da aka ci Orbán a akwatin zaɓe, jami’an EU suna la’akari da tsare-tsare na maye gurbin don hana yin watsi da shawarwari daga sabbin mambobi da suka zama masu tayar da hankali.
Grabbe, wacce yanzu ke Cibiyar Tunanin Tattalin Arziki ta Bruegel, ta daɗe tana jayayya cewa masu shiga tsakani masu mulkin kama-karya sun fi zama barazana ga EU fiye da Brexit. “Birtaniya ta kasance abokin tarayya mai wahala, amma ta kasance abokin tarayya mai aminci,” in ji ta, tana kwatanta aiwatar da shawarwarin EU da Birtaniya da alkawarin Orbán da ya karya na tallafawa lamunin biliyan 90 na Yuro ga Ukraine.
Shugaban Hungary Viktor Orbán, wanda aka gani a nan tare da Emmanuel Macron na Faransa, ya daɗe yana damun EU. (Hoto: Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP/Getty Images)
Yanzu, bayan wani lokaci mai tashin hankali, dangantakar EU da Birtaniya ta kwanta sosai. Bangarorin biyu za su gudanar da taron “sake farawa” a ranar 22 ga Yuli, da nufin cimma yarjejeniyar dabbobi don sauƙaƙa binciken abinci da abin sha, haɗa tsarin cinikin hayaki, da ƙirƙirar shirin motsi na matasa.
Roth, wanda ya kira kansa “mai tsananin Brexit,” ya ce dangantakar EU da Birtaniya “ta yi kyau – a gaskiya ta fi yadda mutane da yawa suka yi tsammani,” saboda EU “ba ta ƙara yin hulɗa da keɓantaciyar Birtaniya” a cikin cibiyoyinta.
Michel ya ce yana tsammanin EU za ta amsa da “ruhu mai kyau” idan Birtaniya ta taɓa son sake shiga – “idan kuma lokacin da akwai shiri don muhawara mai mahimmanci a cikin gida.”
Ya ce ya rage ga Birtaniya ta yanke shawara ko “Birtaniya ta duniya” ta sa ƙasar ta fi tasiri, ko da yake shi da kansa ya yi imanin Birtaniya ta “raunana” fiye da lokacin da take memba a EU.
A yanzu, babu wanda yake ganin sake shigar Birtaniya a matsayin yiwuwar gaske. Wani babban jami’in diflomasiyyar EU ya gaya wa Guardian: “A kan batutuwa da yawa, lokacin da Birtaniya ke cikin EU, muna da ra’ayi iri ɗaya – kan kasuwar cikin gida, kan ciniki cikin ‘yanci, kan dangantakar transatlantic – kuma muna kewar Birtaniya a can.”
“Amma gaskiyar rayuwa ce, don haka babu wani bege.”
