The Guardian has revisited five key constituencies that we reported on during the 2016 EU referendum campaign. We asked the people we spoke to back then how they feel about Brexit now, a decade after the vote.
Torridge and West Devon. Voted Leave by 57.0%
“Absolute nightmare, a complete mess, and it still is today,” says Tony Rutherford, a decade after he voted Leave to save the British fishing industry.
Rutherford has run a business in Appledore, north-west Devon, since 1979, buying from fishermen and selling to wholesalers. He even appeared on a UKIP poster. “Nobody is listening. They might listen in June,” he said in 2016.
Now he says Brexit has been a disaster from day one. Under Boris Johnson’s deal, the UK fishing fleet that Rutherford works with saw almost no increase in fishing opportunities. “Sold down the river,” is how Rutherford puts it.
Then there were the huge extra export costs that started on 1 January 2021. He had “folders and folders” of information about what he needed to do in advance, but it all turned out to be “useless.”
“I believe it was 4 January when we shipped our first load, worth £47,000, mostly ray and Dover sole,” he says. “The first thing you have to do is register for VAT in France. You can’t export to France without that. You have to hire a French accountant to do it for you, which costs £2,000 a month. That first shipment was held up for five days.”
The load was ruined. Under a compensation scheme set up by the government as the disaster unfolded, Rutherford got £11,000 back.
“That was our first experience,” he says. “Then there are other costs: you need a health certificate that costs £85 each time. You need a transport company to handle the import documents: £245 each time. So every shipment costs an extra £330.
“If you ship three times a week, that’s a thousand pounds. And there are other costs. Keep in mind we’re really just a husband-and-wife team, so that’s £70,000 straight out of my pocket. It’s terrible.”
Then there’s French customs. “A health certificate is 16 pages long, with eight pages in English and eight in French,” Rutherford says. “If you miss one digit of a 10-digit code, your whole shipment is rejected on the other side. Since Brexit, we’ve lost about eight loads, worth anywhere from £15,000 to £50,000.”
He adds: “A lot of merchants in the south-west of England say, ‘I just can’t do it anymore – it’s not worth exporting.’ I’ll be exporting this Friday, and I’ll have all the costs and all the worries until I get an email on Saturday saying customs cleared it.” Does he regret his vote? “One hundred percent – anyone would.”
Daniel Boffey
Ceredigion. Voted Remain by 54.6%
In 2016, the then Liberal Democrat MP for Ceredigion, Mark Williams, said he was very confident campaigning for Remain in the referendum. A YouGov poll at the time suggested his former constituency was the most pro-EU area in the UK.
Not only was the area’s rural economy “heavily dependent” on EU funding, but the universities in Aberystwyth and Lampeter meant “we have been an enriched, cosmopolitan community for a very long time,” he said 10 years ago.
Much has changed since then. The University of Wales, Lampeter has closed. The constituency is now part of Ceredigion Preseli, which includes parts of north Pembrokeshire. And Williams was replaced by Plaid Cymru’s Ben Lake in the 2017 general election.
“The tide had already turned against the remaining Liberal Democrats in office by then, but I have no doubt that the Brexit result contributed to me losing my seat,” Williams says today.
He and Lake both say the local agricultural sector has suffered from leaving the EU.
Lake says: “Our upland sheep farmers are more dependent on subsidies than arable farms. The funding cycles used to run in five- to seven-year cycles, and no…”Two years is a luxury. Most lamb exports still go to the EU, but now farmers have to deal with health and sanitary certificates and checks.
Even though Ceredigion voted to remain, Wales as a whole voted to leave—unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland. This might be because many retired English people live there.
Support for Plaid Cymru has grown a lot since then. The Welsh nationalist party had its best general election result in 2024, and now leads Wales after sweeping Labour out of power in May’s historic Senedd election.
According to Lake, Brexit “drew attention to constitutional matters.”
“It’s clear that the current setup, with a heavily centralised government in Westminster, doesn’t work for Wales… or north-east England or Cornwall, for that matter,” he says. “Since Brexit, people have realised that Plaid Cymru is the one that will stand up for Wales.”
Bethan McKernan
Banff and Buchan. Voted remain by 54.0%
In May 2016, David Milne, chair of the Scottish White Fish Producers Association, leaned against an EU funding sign on the quayside of Fraserburgh harbour and said he hoped Brexit would let his industry “manage our own destiny.” But now he feels their livelihoods were “bartered away.”
For Milne, “control” was the main appeal of Brexit. “We are bitter about it because we haven’t gained any,” he now says.
“Nearly 99% of fishermen voted for Brexit because we wanted more control. We wanted to manage the quotas and effort and have more say over what happened in our waters.
“We were promised that, but it hasn’t happened. So that’s the thing—it was just lies told to us again.”
David Milne in 2016 and in 2026
Scottish fishers have continued to voluntarily close spawning grounds in Scottish waters to help cod stocks recover. But Milne says EU boats now sail north to take advantage of those waters.
“We designed the areas where we knew the cod were spawning at certain times of the year. These were things we took on ourselves, as fishermen, to manage the cod stocks.
“And now we see EU vessels from Holland coming all the way to Fair Isle and Shetlands to catch cod. It’s a bitter pill to swallow.”
Boundary changes in 2024 mean the constituency of Banff and Buchan no longer exists.
Severin Carrell
Romford. Voted leave by 69.2%
A decade ago, Sue Connelly didn’t hold back on Brexit. “We want our country back,” she said during the EU referendum campaign, outside Margaret Thatcher House, the headquarters of Romford’s Conservative Association.
In the years since, the party’s local fortunes have changed dramatically. At last month’s local elections, Reform UK took control of Havering council, where the east London town is located, and completely wiped out the Tories in the process.
But some things haven’t changed. “Romford is very rightwing,” says Michael White, a former Conservative leader of Havering council.
Neither Connelly, who served as the constituency secretary, nor Osman Dervish, the former chair of the Conservative Association—both of whom spoke to the Guardian in Romford during the 2016 campaign—responded to requests to reflect on the result a decade later.
White and Dilip Patel, the deputy leader of the Romford Conservative group, who also campaigned locally for the leave vote, now have “mixed feelings” about Brexit.
Sue Connelly and Osman Dervish outside Margaret Thatcher House in Romford in 2016, and Michael White and Dilip Patel outside the same building in 2026
Patel says his choice was influenced by his role as a school governor, where he could “see the pressure schools were under to accommodate children” who moved from Bulgaria and Romania after both countries joined the EU.
He also mentions pressures on the NHS and housing. “I felt that we needed to stop the influx of free movement until we got ourselves sorted,” he says.
White says he voted for Brexit because he “wanted policies for British people.”…to be made in Britain and not in Brussels,” and a hope that “the money we were supposed to save could be better spent on the NHS.” But he’s doubtful that the health service has actually seen any of the money promised as a benefit of Brexit. “In fact, the NHS has gotten worse,” White says.
Patel and White lost their seats as local councillors to Reform UK last month, which they believe was partly due to Brexit. “I think it’s split the party,” White says.
Both were approached by Reform to switch sides but refused, unlike some other Conservatives. “Was I annoyed?” White asks. “Yes. Lots of people I’ve considered colleagues for years decided to cross the floor.”
Among them was Andrew Rosindell, Romford’s MP for 25 years, who joined Nigel Farage’s party in January. This has caused a bitter split between the local Conservative Association and Rosindell, who was locked out of his constituency office in Margaret Thatcher House. He took legal action to get back in but lost. His name is still on the door.
White says he was “saddened and disappointed” by Rosindell’s move. “I’ve known Andrew since 1982 and we’ve been the best of friends. I think I was probably one of the first people he called to say he was defecting,” he says.
But party loyalty comes first, and he’s ready to campaign against Rosindell. “It’s quite a challenge to go out and campaign against someone who’s been a friend for a long time, but that’s what I need to do,” White says. “I’m very unhappy I have to face that choice.”
Sammy Gecsoyler
Kettering. Voted leave by 61.0%
Ten years ago, the then Conservative MP Philip Hollobone – wearing a Union Jack coat – predicted that places like Rothwell, Northamptonshire, would have a crucial say in Britain’s future.
“This is middle England,” he said at the time, leading his pro-leave campaigners through the town. “This referendum will be decided in market towns like this.”
His side won the Brexit campaign – but Hollobone lost his parliamentary seat in Kettering to Labour in 2024. He believes this was because Nigel Farage’s Reform UK took votes from him.
“The big Reform message in 2024 was real anger about immigration,” Hollobone says. He claims the Conservatives failed to deliver on their promise to tighten migration after leaving the EU.
“The negotiations were handled really badly, and the Brexit deal when it was achieved was not good enough,” Hollobone says. “The tragedy is that over the last 10 years, the potential of Brexit hasn’t been realised. That doesn’t mean it can’t be. But putting Brexit into practice hasn’t gone nearly as well as it should have.
“That isn’t Brexit’s fault. It’s the fault of the politicians in charge of the process. The biggest letdown has been immigration. We had the chance to really tighten our immigration controls, but instead it went the other way.”
Hollobone supported Boris Johnson for Tory leader in 2019 after Theresa May’s government fell, because he was unhappy with her Brexit plans. Johnson let him down, Hollobone says.
“Boris Johnson didn’t believe in the tough controls that many others did. Ukip stood down in the 2019 election because they believed Conservative promises that we would get tough on immigration. And when we didn’t, Reform took revenge in 2024.”
Daniel Boffey
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the article Absolute nightmare A look back at Brexit bellwether constituencies 10 years later
BeginnerLevel Questions
Q What is this article about
A Its a followup report 10 years after the Brexit vote looking at the specific towns and areas that strongly voted to leave the EU It examines whether the promises made before the vote actually came true for those communities
Q What does bellwether constituency mean
A Its a voting district that tends to reflect the overall national mood In this context these are the places that voted heavily for Brexit and were seen as a sign of what the whole country wanted
Q Why is the article called Absolute nightmare
A The title reflects the very negative experiences reported by people in these areas Many residents say their local economy jobs and public services have gotten worse since Brexit not better
Q Did the article find that Brexit was a success for these areas
A No The report found that most of the bellwether constituencies are struggling They face higher costs labor shortages and a lack of the promised new opportunities from leaving the EU
IntermediateLevel Questions
Q What specific problems are these constituencies facing now
A Key problems include severe staff shortages in farming hospitality and healthcare rising food and fuel prices closed factories and shops and a feeling of being ignored by the government
Q What were the main promises made to these areas before the Brexit vote
A The main promises were that leaving the EU would mean more money for the National Health Service better trade deals tighter border control and a revival of local manufacturing and fishing industries
Q Did the article mention any benefits from Brexit in these areas
A The article mentions very few Any gains like new local business startups are usually overshadowed by the bigger problems like inflation and lack of workers Most people interviewed said the benefits never came
Q How did the people in these towns feel about their vote 10 years later
