Ba mu da hauhawar farashin kaya'? Zane-zane biyar sun bayyana gaskiyar tattalin arzikin Amurka a wa'adin na biyu na Trump ya zuwa yanzu

Da yake zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adi yana gabatowa, yawancin Amurkawa sun mai da hankali kan tattalin arziki. Masu jefa ƙuri'a na Amurka sun gaji bayan shekaru na hauhawar farashin kaya. Donald Trump ya lashe shugabancin ƙasar a 2024 ta hanyar yin alkawarin rage hauhawar farashin kaya da gyara barnar da ya ce gwamnatin Biden ta yi wa tattalin arzikin. Kaɗan kaɗan, a makare: Trump ya ɗauki nauyin farashin man fetur yayin da kuɗin mai ke cutar da fatan sa na zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adi. Karanta ƙari. A ra'ayin Trump, shirinsa yana aiki. A wani taro na kwanan nan a Montana, Trump ya yaba wa tattalin arzikin yanzu, yana kwatanta shi a matsayin lokacin bunƙasa ga Amurkawa. "Muna da arziki yanzu," in ji shi. "Ba mu da hauhawar farashin kaya." Bayanan tattalin arziki sun ba da labari daban. Hauhawar farashin kaya, musamman farashin man fetur, ya yi tsalle a cikin shekarar da ta gabata. Kasuwar aiki ta tsaya cak, kuma ƙarin ribar kuɗi ya sa ya fi tsada ga Amurkawa su karɓi kuɗi a matsayin lamuni da jinginar gida. Waɗannan sauye-sauye suna da tasiri na gaske a rayuwar Amurkawa. Wani binciken Harris na kwanan nan ga Guardian ya gano cewa yawancin Amurkawa, ciki har da wasu 'yan Republican, ba su yarda da kiyasin Trump ba. Kusan kashi biyu bisa uku sun ce sun yi imanin ƙasar tana cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki, kuma da yawa sun ce hauhawar farashin kaya ya kasance babban nauyi. Amurkawa sun ba da rahoton samun matsala wajen ajiya, kuma kashi ɗaya bisa uku na waɗanda aka yi wa binciken sun ce wani lissafin da ba a zata ba zai iya lalata su ta hanyar kuɗi. Ga abin da bayanai suka nuna game da wa'adi na biyu na Trump ya zuwa yanzu. Hauhawar farashin kaya Adadin hauhawar farashin kaya ya yi sanyi sosai tun lokacin da ya kai kololuwa a 2022, lokacin da kunshin ƙarfafa tattalin arziki na annobar ya tura farashin kayan masarufi sama. Hauhawar farashin kaya ya kai kololuwa a 9.1%, mafi girma cikin shekaru 40, a watan Yuni 2022. A watan Janairun 2025, watan da Trump ya fara wa'adinsa na biyu, hauhawar farashin kaya ya ragu zuwa 3%. Zuwa watan Afrilun 2025, ya kasance 2.3%—mafi ƙanƙanin adadi tun 2021. A lokacin ne abubuwa suka fara yin tsauri. Bayan Trump ya sanya haraji kan kusan duk abin da Amurka ke shigo da shi, hauhawar farashin kaya ya fara zafi kuma, yana komawa zuwa 3% a watan Satumban 2025. Bayan an dakatar da yawancin harajin sa kuma daga ƙarshe aka yanke hukuncin cewa ba bisa ka'ida ba ne, farashin ya fara faɗuwa kuma. A watan Janairu da Fabrairun 2026, hauhawar farashin kaya ya koma 2.4%. Yaƙin Iran, musamman tasirinsa kan farashin mai, ya tura hauhawar farashin kaya zuwa matakan da ba a gani ba tun 2023. A watan Mayu, hauhawar farashin kaya ya kai 4.2% kuma ya kasance sama da 3.4% tun daga lokacin. Kusan shekaru shida ke nan tun da Amurkawa suka ga hauhawar farashin kaya a matakin 2% mai iya sarrafawa. Ƙaruwar farashin kaya na taruwa a kan lokaci kuma na iya matse kasafin kuɗi, wanda shine dalilin da ya sa wannan lamari ne mai matuƙar muhimmanci ga masu jefa ƙuri'a a wani zaɓe mai muhimmanci. Farashin man fetur A binciken Guardian na kwanan nan tare da Harris Poll, farashin man fetur shine mafi yawan abin da ke cutar da Amurkawa, inda 83% suka ce yana cutar da kuɗin su na yanzu. Ba da daɗewa ba bayan yaƙin Iran ya fara, an toshe mashigar Hormuz—wata babbar hanya da kashi ɗaya bisa biyar na man fetur na duniya ke wucewa ta cikinta. Rufe ta ya tura farashin sama a duniya. Ko da yake Amurka ita kanta babbar mai samar da mai ce, farashin ya yi tsalle tun yaƙin. Matsakaicin farashin man fetur ya kasance $4.32 a kowace galan a tsakiyar watan Oktoba, a cewar AAA, kusan $1.30 a galan sama da shekarar da ta gabata. Ko a cikin jihar mai samar da mai kamar Texas, galan ɗaya na man fetur yana kashe $3.81, idan aka kwatanta da $2.64 shekarar da ta gabata. A halin yanzu, direbobi a California, jihar da ke shigo da yawancin man feturinta daga ƙasashen waje, suna biyan $6.21 a kowace galan. Adadin ayyuka na wata-wata Kasuwar aiki wata ma'auni ce ta lafiyar tattalin arziki, kuma ko da yake kasuwar aikin Amurka ta ga wani ci gaba tun lokacin da Trump ya sake karɓar mulki, adadi ya yi ta juyawa a cikin shekarar da ta gabata. A 2025, an ƙara sabbin ayyuka 181,000 a tattalin arzikin, idan aka kwatanta da ayyuka miliyan 2.2 a 2024. Ma'aikata sun fuskanci yanayi gauraye na ɗaukar ma'aikata: manufofin shige da fice masu tsanani, rashin tabbas daga haraji, da ƙarin farashin kayan aiki duk sun nufi jinkirin haɓakar ayyuka. Adadin rashin aikin yi ya kasance ƙasa, duk da haka, a kan Rashin aikin yi ya wuce 4%. Masana tattalin arziki suna kiran wannan "tattalin arzikin ƙarancin ɗauka, ƙarancin sallama," inda ma'aikata ba sa ɗaukar ma'aikata ko sallamar ma'aikata. S&P 500 Ko da yake yawancin Amurkawa sun ba da rahoton fama a tattalin arzikin yau, wasu kaɗan ba su taɓa samun arziki ba. Kasuwar hannun jari ta ci gaba da hauhawa tun lokacin da Trump ya karɓi mulki, tana murmurewa daga faɗuwar da aka gani a lokacin sanarwar harajinsa na farko da kwanakin farko na yaƙin Iran. Masana tattalin arziki galibi suna ganin zuba jari na AI a matsayin babban abin da ke haifar da haɓakar kasuwar hannun jari. Kamfanonin fasaha suna kashe biliyoyin daloli wajen zuba jari a cibiyoyin bayanai da guntuwar da ake buƙata don ƙarfafa AI. Jadawalin layi da ke nuna sabbin alkaluman S&P 500 Ko da yake yawancin Amurkawa suna da hannun jari a kasuwar hannun jari ta hanyar kuɗin ritaya da fansho, wannan haɓaka ya kasance babban amfani ga kashi 1% mafi arziki na Amurkawa, waɗanda suka mallaki kusan rabin zuba jarin kasuwar hannun jari. Masana tattalin arziki sun ce ƙarin farashin kaya tare da kasuwar hannun jari mai cike da farin ciki ya haifar da tattalin arziki mai siffar K, inda masu arziki ba su taɓa jin sun fi arziki ba yayin da talakawan Amurkawa ke ci gaba da fuskantar matsewar kasafin kuɗi daga hauhawar farashin kaya. Ribar kuɗi Ribar kuɗi galibi ba ta zama abin lura ga masu amfani kamar farashin man fetur ko kayan miya, waɗanda suke fuskanta kowace rana. Tasirin da ƙarin ribar kuɗi ke da shi kan tattalin arziki yana ɗaukar lokaci kafin ya bayyana kuma yana da zurfi. Ribar kuɗi tana tsara nawa Amurkawa ke biya don karɓar kuɗi – don gudanar da kasuwancinsu, biyan lamunin mota da sayan gidajensu. Ga Babban Bankin Tarayya, canza ribar kuɗi shine kayan aikin da yake amfani da shi wajen daidaita tattalin arziki. Ƙara riba na iya sanyaya tattalin arziki, yana kawo farashin ƙasa, ko da yake yana da haɗarin cutar da kasuwar aiki. Rage riba na iya ƙarfafa tattalin arziki tare da haɗarin haifar da ƙarin hauhawar farashin kaya. Jadawalin layi da ke nuna ribar kuɗi ta tarayya Lokacin da Trump ya shiga mulki a watan Janairun 2025, Fed yana tsakiyar jerin raguwar ribar kuɗi. Jami'ai sun ce suna ganin hauhawar farashin kaya yana sanyi da jinkirin haɓaka a kasuwar aiki. Ribar kuɗi ta kasance a kewayon 4.25% zuwa 4.5% – 1% ƙasa da yadda take shekarar da ta gabata. Rashin tabbas game da sabbin harajin Trump daga ƙarshe zai sa jami'ai su dakatar da raguwar, ko da yake shugaban yana ci gaba da neman ƙananan riba. Yayin da harajin ya nuna ƙarancin tasiri na dogon lokaci kan farashi, Fed ya sake fara rage riba a kaka 2025. Tsawon watanni, Fed ya jinkirta canza riba yayin da tasirin tattalin arzikin yaƙin Iran ya bayyana. Amma a watan Satumba, Fed ya ƙara riba a karon farko tun 2023, da kwata ɗaya. Shugaban Fed da Trump ya naɗa, Kevin Warsh, ya ce "hauhawar farashin kaya ya yi yawa kuma ya daɗe haka." Ƙarin ribar kuɗi ya riga ya yi tasiri kan ribar jinginar gida, wadda ta faɗi ƙasa da 6% (na jinginar gida na shekaru 30) a karon farko tun 2022 a watan Fabrairu, amma yanzu ya haura 7%.

Tambayoyin da ake yawan yi
Tambayoyin da ake yawan yi Ba Mu Da Hauhawar Farashin Kaya Jadawalai Biyar Kan Tattalin Arzikin Amurka a Wa'adi na Biyu na Trump

1 Menene ma'anar ba mu da hauhawar farashin kaya a zahiri
Da'awa ce cewa haɓakar farashi ba matsala ba ce kuma. Masana tattalin arziki suna auna hauhawar farashin kaya a matsayin canjin kashi na shekara-shekara a farashi. Idan wannan adadin ya kusa manufar Fed na 2, wasu suna jayayya cewa hauhawar farashin kaya ya ƙare – ko da yake farashi ya kasance sama da yadda yake a da

2 Jira, idan hauhawar farashin kaya ya tafi me ya sa komai har yanzu yake da tsada
Domin hauhawar farashin kaya adadin canji ne ba matakin farashi ba. Farashi ya yi tsalle sosai a 2022–2023 kuma galibi ya kasance a can. Jinkirin hauhawar farashin kaya yana nufin farashi yana hawa a hankali – ba yana nufin ya koma ƙasa ba

3 Menene jadawalai biyar galibi suke nunawa
Yawanci hauhawar farashin kaya tana gangarowa zuwa manufa, kasuwar aiki mai ƙarfi har yanzu, haɓakar GDP tana tsayawa, kashe kuɗin masu amfani da ra'ayi, da haɗarin haraji ko manufofi. Tare suna nuna tattalin arziki mai juriya amma mara daidaituwa

4 Shin da gaske hauhawar farashin kaya ya koma al'ada
Hauhawar farashin kaya na asali ya yi sanyi sosai daga kololuwar 2022 amma galibi yana ɗan wuce 2. Don haka a'a, hauhawar farashin kaya ya wuce gona da iri – raguwar hauhawar farashin kaya ya fi daidai

5 Shin haraji yana haifar da hauhawar farashin kaya
Haraji yana aiki kamar haraji kan shigo da kaya don haka yana ƙoƙarin ƙara wasu farashi. Tasirin ya dogara da nawa ake turawa ga masu amfani, ko kasuwanci yana ɗauka, da yadda dala da sarƙoƙin samarwa ke amsawa

6 Yaya haraji da hauhawar farashin kaya suke da alaƙa a wannan wa'adin
Harajin da aka sanar a 2025 ya tayar da damuwar farashi amma tasirin da aka auna ya zuwa yanzu ya kasance gauraye kuma a hankali. Kamfanoni da yawa sun riga sun shigo da kaya ko sun ɗauki farashi don haka cikakken tasirin na iya bayyana da jinkiri

7 Menene bambanci tsakanin CPI da PCE
CPI yana bin diddigin ƙayyadadden kwandon kayan gida. PCE yana rufe faɗin kashe kuɗin masu amfani kuma shine ma'aunin da Fed ya fi so. Galibi suna tafiya tare amma suna iya bambanta

8 Me ya sa Fed yake damuwa sosai da 2
Manufar 2 tana kafa tsammanin. Idan mutane suna tsammanin farashi mai kwanciyar hankali, saita albashi da farashi yana kasancewa cikin kwanciyar hankali – wanda ke hana hauhawar farashin kaya yin muni

9 Menene ake ɗauka a matsayin hauhawar farashin kaya na asali kuma me ya sa ake amfani da shi
Na asali yana cire abinci da makamashi waɗanda suke juyawa sosai. Yana ba da ingantaccen karatu kan matsin farashi na asali